Wednesday, September 28, 2016

First ClintonTrump Debate 092616 - Betting Markets

The betting market PredictIt on Tuesday morning showed virtually all shares predicting a Clinton victory trending upwards -- meaning that bettors thought the chances of her winning the White House had improved. Shares predicting a Trump victory, by comparison, lost value overnight.  Similarly, the betting site Hypermind showed Clinton’s likelihood of victory rising and Trump’s falling.

The well-regarded Predictwise site, which synthesizes data from multiple betting markets and more, registered one of the more dramatic shifts. Before the debate last night, it had Clinton with a 69 percent to 31 percent advantage is the race to win the White House. (That is measuring probability of an Electoral College victory, not the popular vote.) By Tuesday morning the divide had widened to 74-26 in Clinton’s favor.


That's a major pop aka "statistically significant"


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